NATO-Funded Study on Baltic-Chinese Relations Comes to an End

Baltic-Chinese relations are currently at one of their lowest points, with no prospect of an improvement in the near future. At the same time, however, it is crucial to continue discussing the role of China as a security actor at the Baltic level, as NATO's strategic focus on China is increasing. This is the conclusion of a study just published by political scientists from Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia.

The authors of the project China's Role and Perception in the Baltic States: Implications for National Security and NATO review the bilateral cooperation between China and each of the Baltic States and analyse the results from nationally representative surveys on Baltic attitudes toward China. The project was funded by NATO’s Public Diplomacy Division. The results of the project are summarised in the publication China in the Baltic States – from a cause of hope to fear. The study has been carried out since April 2022. Justīne Kante, a PhD student at RSU, has been studying Latvia, Anniki Mikelsaar, a master’s student at the University of Oxford, has described the situation in Estonia, and Vida Mačikėnaitė from the International University of Japan has written about Lithuania. The publication was edited by Una Aleksandra Bērziņa-Čerenkova, Associate Professor, Doctor of Political Science, Head of the Rīga Stradiņš University China Studies Centre, and Māris Andžāns, Associate Professor at RSU, Director of the Centre for Geopolitical Studies.

The opinion poll that was conducted in the summer of 2022 was the first poll to be conducted simultaneously and within the same methodological framework in the Baltic States. According to this poll, China is mainly seen as an ancient culture, an economic and technological powerhouse, but also associated with authoritarianism and communism. According to the researchers, China's economic, military and political influence on the world stage has grown over the past decades. The survey highlights that this has also been noticed in the Baltic region. The most negative attitude towards China was expressed in Lithuania where China is seen as a threat to other countries.

However, when asked how they felt about China (from positive to negative), more than 40% of respondents across the Baltics expressed a neutral attitude. Latvia had the highest proportion of respondents with a neutral opinion of China (55%), while Lithuanians and Estonians had the most negative views of China. Interesting trends can be observed when looking at respondents’ native language. The survey shows that Russian speakers in Latvia and Estonia have a more positive view of China than native speakers of Latvian or Estonian. Latvian and Estonian speakers also associate China more explicitly with communism and authoritarianism, human rights violations, and as a threat to other countries. Overall, the researchers point out that the results of the sociological survey are broadly in line with the state of Baltic-Chinese diplomatic relations. China is not a strong external power in the region, so the majority of people do not pay much attention to its domestic and foreign policies. ‘China's overall successes and failures are well known, and it is the failures that the Baltic people are beginning to pay more attention to. This has been fuelled by the recent disagreements between Lithuania and China on Taiwan, as well as by China's support for Russia and Belarus,’ Andžāns explains.